5K
Estimated time23:59Pace: 4:48 /km
Race time predictor
See what your current performance means for a 5K, 10K, half marathon or marathon. Or start with a target time and calculate the equivalent performance you need over a shorter distance.
The estimate uses the Riegel model as an indicative comparison of performances across distances.
Estimate for other distances
Your entered result is approximately equivalent to these times and paces.
10KEntered
Estimated time50:00Pace: 5:00 /km
Half marathon
Estimated time1:50:20Pace: 5:14 /km
Marathon
Estimated time3:50:00Pace: 5:27 /km
The calculation uses a Riegel exponent of 1.06. The result is indicative and does not assess your training readiness.
REFERENCE TABLE
Equivalent 5K, 10K, half marathon and marathon performances
This table shows indicative equivalent performances using the Riegel model. For example, if you run 10K in 50 minutes, you can see the approximate equivalent for 5K, a half marathon or a marathon.
Reference performance: 10K
| 5K | 10KReference | Half marathon | Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:47 | 35:00 | 1:17:15 | 2:41:00 |
| 17:59 | 37:30 | 1:22:45 | 2:52:30 |
| 19:11 | 40:00 | 1:28:15 | 3:04:00 |
| 20:23 | 42:30 | 1:33:45 | 3:15:30 |
| 21:35 | 45:00 | 1:39:15 | 3:27:00 |
| 22:47 | 47:30 | 1:44:50 | 3:38:30 |
| 23:59 | 50:00 | 1:50:20 | 3:50:00 |
| 25:11 | 52:30 | 1:55:50 | 4:01:30 |
| 26:23 | 55:00 | 2:01:20 | 4:13:00 |
| 27:35 | 57:30 | 2:06:50 | 4:24:30 |
| 28:47 | 1:00:00 | 2:12:25 | 4:36:00 |
| 31:11 | 1:05:00 | 2:23:25 | 4:59:00 |
| 33:34 | 1:10:00 | 2:34:25 | 5:22:00 |
Longer distances depend more heavily on endurance training, fueling, course profile, weather and pacing. An equivalent performance is therefore not a guarantee of a result.
AN ESTIMATE IS THE START
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Pacero tracks your real fitness, training load and progress, then adapts your next sessions to the results.
HOW TO READ THE PREDICTION
Equivalent performance is not the same as readiness.
How race time prediction works
It converts one known performance to another distance while accounting for the usual decline in sustainable speed as distance increases.
What the Riegel formula is
The Riegel model multiplies a known time by the distance ratio raised to an exponent of 1.06. It is a simple deterministic model, not an AI estimate.
Why estimates weaken across very different distances
The further the target race is from the source performance, the more endurance, running economy and distance-specific training affect the result.
Why a 10K does not guarantee a marathon
An equivalent marathon time assumes sufficient volume, long runs, fueling and pacing. A fast 10K alone does not confirm those foundations.
How to use a prediction when setting a goal
Compare your goal with a recent performance over a similar distance, then check it against training history, long runs and consistency.
Performance versus training readiness
Equivalent performance compares times. Readiness also includes load, recovery, specific sessions and your ability to cover the full target distance.
FAQ